US-Cuban foreign relations in the wake of Fidel Castro’s death

Abby Banks, Layout Editor

Information Graphic by Abby Banks

Fidel Castro, founder of the current communist regime in Cuba, died of unknown causes at the age of 90. The Cuban government announced his passing the morning afterward, though they did not provide any details on the cause of his death. While his death may have smaller effects worldwide, effects to specifically America will be aggravated by the President-elect’s anti-interaction stances.

After 60+ years of animosity between Cuba and America, Washington and the Communist Party of Cuba have been taking steps to increase interaction between the two states. Obama and Castro’s successor, Raul Castro, had been working on decreasing restrictions on Cuban citizens and repairing damaged relationships from the Cold War era.

Many say that the death of Castro will have a minimal effect on America’s relations. The prevailing theory is that, instead, Donald Trump’s election will have a devastating effect on our relations.

The infamously isolationist president-elect has been wanting to reduce trade deals with other countries, and has even discussed pulling out of the UN. His celebratory tweet, “Fidel Castro is dead!” only serves to damage delicate associations and offend the current president of Cuba, Castro’s younger brother. With this as the current marching order for foreign policy, the US will have a tough time reducing future animosities for Cuba.

While Trump would stymie growth in American relations, internal Cuba will most likely stay the same. Raul Castro has been taking steps, even without Washington, to reduce sanctions on Cuban citizens, and open Cuba up to the rest of the world. The economic embargo placed on Cuba by the US wouldn’t be lifted, which could impede growth of the Cuban economy, but increases in civil liberties of citizens would still be made.

Civilian pushback in the wake of Castro’s death could be a huge problem. While the totalitarian Castro regime had it’s downfalls (extremely serious, often genocidal, downfalls), they made huge strides in education and healthcare for their citizens. According to Fidel Castro’s BBC iWonder page, illiteracy rates fell from 23 percent to 4 percent during his rule. This newfound literacy was used to spread propaganda text, heavily influencing public support.

Any foreign disrespect towards Castro’s rule could lead to civilian hatred of that country. It happened in Saudi Arabia, when the government accepted US military support, offending Osama bin Laden and leading to the threat of al Qaeda. If this were to happen with Cuba, results could be disastrous.

As well, the death of Castro could lead to civil unrest. Exiled activists groups like Cuban Democratic Directorate, who described the Castro government as a “vicious totalitarian regime,” could use this as an opportunity to claim power or overthrow the Communist government, leading to either a power vacuum or an unfamiliar new government, which the US would have to create new relationships with.

A new government or power vacuum, within the social intolerance of Cuban society, could lead to war with many other countries. Resentment of America’s economic sanctions could lead to attacks on the US, or it could lead to extreme internal conflict, causing even more deaths than the party itself did.

While Catsro hasn’t been in direct power for the past few years, his death could still have disastrous effects to the relationship between Cuba and the outside world. In and of itself, his death could have avoided causing to large of a conflict, any problems that arise now would be exacerbated by the election of Trump and the rising intolerance in America’s policies.